Repeat of a post from 2005 with some new comments

This is a repeat of a paper I used in a lecture given to the South Bend Chapter of the Engineering Society in 2004. I also published it in 2005 in a blog titled, “Maybe It’s Global Cooling We Should Be Preparing For.” The article speaks for itself in pointing out the errors in the very first promotion of “global warming” including Al Gore’s book. It should be quite obvious to even the dimmest lightbulb out there that this is a monstrous scam perpetrated solely for money and power on an international scale. Sadly it has blackened the reputation of good science in the eyes of so much of the public who are not as ignorant or stupid as those greedy politicians think. It is my firm belief that as the truth about the realities of climate change finally comes out, the damage to the respect the scientific community worked so hard to earn will be monstrous. Those scientists who have joined politicians and abandoned their scientific principles to jump on the global warming bandwagon without adequate investigation will surely suffer in the eyes and opinions of the public. This fiasco will take decades to correct if indeed it is correctable.

Those proclaiming the dangers of global warming would do well to study what real climate scientists have discovered about the last few thousand years.

The 2005 blog begins:

Many climate scientists believe it is quite possible that the changing gulf stream indicates the likelihood of a return of conditions that brought on the “Little ice age” from mid 14th century ‘til the start of the twentieth century. Should the gulf stream stop flowing, as many scientists believe it did during the “Little ice age,” the increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may actually temper the temperature drop and make another such climatic event far less damaging.

Most of the negative information about global warming comes from computer modeling which, in the past, has been consistently wrong. Temperature records of the last several thousand years indicate repeated run ups and declines in average global temperatures far greater than we are currently experiencing. The following article indicates global temperatures for numerous centuries from 800AD to 1300AD averaged far greater than those of the twentieth century.

The real problem is that politicians and some scientists, who are promoting self-serving agendas, concentrate solely on data supporting their chosen position and ignore data that disproves it. Most scientists preaching alarm about global warming are not in the field of long range world climate. As a matter of fact, most scientists working in that field believe many of the observed temperature fluctuations fall well within historical limits of fluctuations.

The truth is that attempts at computer modeling of worldwide climate changes and weather in either short or long range is far too inaccurate for dependable results. To have meaningful results they would have to be able to make accurate predictions about a future hurricane, before it ever started. Current modeling can hardly predict even a few day’s future movement and power of an existing hurricane with any degree of accuracy. The technical limits and variables facing such modeling is far far beyond our present technical capabilities.

20th century not warmest, researchers find

Coral reefs are sensitive to a variety of environmental changes. Smithsonian astronomers Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas reviewed more than 200 studies of coral, glacier ice cores, tree rings and other indicators to trace changes in the world's climate over the past millennium. They found that the 20th century is NOT the warmest of the past 1000 years. (Credit: David A. Aguilar, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics)

11:30 a.m., April 15, 2003--A review of more than 200 climate studies led by researchers at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics has determined that the 20th century was neither the warmest century nor the century with the most extreme weather of the past 1,000 years.

The review, which included work by David R. Legates, director of the University of Delaware’s Center for Climatic Research, also confirmed that the Medieval Warm Period of 800 to 1300 A.D. and the Little Ice Age of 1300 to 1900 A.D. were worldwide phenomena not limited to the European and North American continents.

Legates said the paper argues against a recently espoused view formulated by Michael Mann of the University of Virginia and his colleagues that global air temperatures remained fairly constant from 1000-1900 A.D., then increased dramatically in the 20th century.

“Although [Mann’s work] is now widely used as proof of anthropogenic global warming, we’ve become concerned that such an analysis is in direct contradiction to most of the research and written histories available,” Legates said. “Our paper shows this contradiction and argues that the results of Mann…are out of step with the preponderance of the evidence.”

According to the paper, while 20th-century temperatures are much higher than in the Little Ice Age period, many parts of the world show the medieval warmth to be greater than that of the 20th century.

Smithsonian astronomers Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, with co-authors Legates and Craig Idso and Sherwood Idso of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, compiled and examined results from more than 240 research papers published by thousands of researchers over the past four decades. Their report, covering a multitude of geophysical and biological climate indicators, provides a detailed look at climate changes that occurred in different regions around the world over the last 1,000 years.
“Many true research advances in reconstructing ancient climates have occurred over the past two decades,” Soon said, “so we felt it was time to pull together a large sample of recent studies from the last five to 10 years and look for patterns of variability and change. In fact, clear patterns did emerge showing that regions worldwide experienced the highs of the Medieval Warm Period and lows of the Little Ice Age, and that 20th-century temperatures are generally cooler than during the medieval warmth.”

Soon and his colleagues concluded that the 20th century is neither the warmest century over the last 1,000 years, nor is it the most extreme. Their findings about the pattern of historical climate variations will help make computer climate models simulate both natural and man-made changes more accurately, and lead to better climate forecasts especially on local and regional levels. This is especially true in simulations on timescales ranging from several decades to a century.

Studies of stalagmites and tree rings can yield yearly records of temperature and precipitation trends. Researchers drill small cores to obtain samples.

Historical cold, warm periods verified

Studying climate change is challenging for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the bewildering variety of climate indicators–all sensitive to different climatic variables, and each operating on slightly overlapping yet distinct scales of space and time. For example, tree ring studies can yield yearly records of temperature and precipitation trends, while glacier ice cores record those variables over longer time scales of several decades to a century.

Soon, Baliunas and colleagues analyzed numerous climate indicators including: borehole data; cultural data; glacier advances or retreats; geomorphology; isotopic analysis from lake sediments or ice cores, tree or peat celluloses (carbohydrates), corals, stalagmite or biological fossils; net ice accumulation rate, including dust or chemical counts; lake fossils and sediments; river sediments; melt layers in ice cores; phenological (recurring natural phenomena in relation to climate) and paleontological fossils; pollen; seafloor sediments; luminescent analysis; tree ring growth, including either ring width or maximum late-wood density; and shifting tree line positions plus tree stumps in lakes, marshes and streams.

“Like forensic detectives, we assembled these series of clues in order to answer a specific question about local and regional climate change: Is there evidence for notable climatic anomalies during particular time periods over the past 1,000 years?” Soon said. “The cumulative evidence showed that such anomalies did exist.”

The worldwide range of climate records confirmed two significant climate periods in the last thousand years, the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. The climatic notion of a Little Ice Age interval from 1300 to1900 A.D. and a Medieval Warm Period from 800 to 1300 A.D. appears to be rather well-confirmed and wide-spread, despite some differences from one region to another as measured by other climatic variables like precipitation, drought cycles, or glacier advances and retreats.

“For a long time, researchers have possessed anecdotal evidence supporting the existence of these climate extremes,” Baliunas said. “For example, the Vikings established colonies in Greenland at the beginning of the second millennium that died out several hundred years later when the climate turned colder. And in England, vineyards had flourished during the medieval warmth. Now, we have an accumulation of objective data to back up these cultural indicators.”

Glacier ice cores record temperature and precipitation trends over longer time scales of several decades to a century. (Credit: Lonnie Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University)

The different indicators provided clear evidence for a warm period in the Middle Ages. Tree ring summer temperatures showed a warm interval from 950 A.D. to 1100 A.D. in the northern high latitude zones, which corresponds to the “Medieval Warm Period.” Another database of tree growth from 14 different locations over 30-70 degrees north latitude showed a similar early warm period. Many parts of the world show the medieval warmth to be greater than that of the 20th century.

The study–funded by NASA, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the American Petroleum Institute–will be published in the Energy and Environment journal. A shorter paper by Soon and Baliunas appeared in the Jan. 31 issue of the Climate Research journal.

End of April 15, 2003 paper - beginning of my part of the blog added to the end of the above.

It is quite obvious that the growing “global warming” movement is not based on good science. Good science does not ignore data that disproves an hypothesis and look only at that which does. Good science does not ignore data points on graphs used to promote a concept just because those points do not agree with that particular concept. Good science does not refuse to look at or consider basic math, chemistry, and physics which do not bear out the hypothesis. Good science does consider all the data, positive, negative, and anywhere in between. Good science does not place the opinions or theories of any person or group above the provable facts no matter what the reputation of the person or group. Good scientists are very skeptical, especially so where politics or politicians are involved. It has been said and wisely so that one should not ask a scientist to disprove a paranormal claim, ask in stead a magician.

I must say, I am not an expert on climate, but I have looked at and studied data, graphs and charts about climate, some going back more than a hundred thousand years. This information is from many sources and has the benefit of the test of years. To this discerning eye, those charts and graphs point to a major cooling event, possibly even the beginnings of another “Ice Age” in the very near future. These type events take place over millennia, even centuries, and can be the cause of huge changes in the ecology of much of the earth. The last ice age ended around ten thousand years ago after nearly sixty thousand years of holding most of the current temperate zones in an icy, arctic grip. North America was buried with up to a mile of ice as far south as the Ohio river and the Rockies were buried all the way to Mexico. Life was tough for mammals and impossible for all cold blooded creatures. Trees and flowering plants were non existent anywhere north of the snow line. Europe and Asia were similarly affected with all mountains buried as well. Glaciers even flowed into the Mediterranean at times. Sea levels were much lower with land bridges connecting many places now under water. It was a very different world.

Many dramatic climate changes have occurred over very short time periods, decades or even less. In fact many scientists now believe sudden changes of a few decades or even a few years are the rule rather than the exception. See this site for more detailed information: http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/transit.html. After examining the data at hand it is my conclusion that we are near or at the end of the current interglacial period. For this reason and in spite of all the noise about the effects of CO2, I am firmly convinced we are on the verge of a major change to a much cooler earth. Is the coming change another “Little Ice Age” that will last a few centuries before it warms up to a period like the present (a common happening) or is it another long and devastating Ice Age like the last one that plunged much of the northern hemisphere under as much as a mile of ice remains to be seen. If it’s the former most of us will feel its effects. If it’s the latter, well, you better consider moving to a much warmer climate—now! The most likely culprit? Earth’s constantly changing position and distance from that small, variable star we call the sun. That’s been messing with our climate for billions of years and there’s not much we can do about it but worry and adapt. Sorry about that all you global warming profiteers. Your gold mine will, I fear, soon pan out to nothing.

End of 2005 blog, return to the current entry

The erroneous claims about CO2 and its effect on air temperature are very troubling. Even doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would have a negligible effect on these huge climate shifts. Do the math, using the gas laws, PV=nRT, and the relative net energy retention coefficients of the various atmospheric gasses, figure out just how much of a temperature rise this change in the amount of CO2 would bring about. It’s simple, basic first year college chemistry, maybe even high school. The results show it’s akin to dumping a bucket of water into even a moderate sized body of water like Lake Erie, or even the local fishin’ hole. That's a far cry from the claims of drowned lands, terrible storms, violent weather, and worldwide calamity we hear constantly from the media and politicians eager to grab some of your money. I have a hard time believing the public are so gullible.

Let me reiterate a prediction I made first in 2004 and then posted to my blog in 2005, five years ago.

We are probably on the verge of changes to a cooler Earth within the next few decades. The “Little Ice Age” descended on Europe (1400-1900 AD) after the Medieval Warm Period (800-1300 AD) which was considerably warmer than the current warming period (1900-the present, 2004). Data shows that solar activity is beginning a typical change to less energy from the sun reaching the earth . This set of conditions combined with several other cyclic changes usually heralds a cooler Earth like the Little Ice Age or even an extended major cold and ice event like the Younger Dryas (12,800 BP to 11,600 BP - Before Present) when the earth returned to full “Ice Age” conditions for more than a millennium. Both the start and end of the Younger Dryas event were very abrupt—five to fifty years. There are several competing theories as to the direct causes of this event which coincided with major megafauna extinctions. There is also evidence that shows the temperature drop that ushered in the Little Ice Age during the 14th century may have occurred in a single season. That could explain why the Norse settlement on Greenland, active and successful for at least 500 years was abruptly wiped out when the temperature dropped suddenly.

Here’s an excerpt from the Saturday, March 28, 2009 posting in this blog:

The world's climate system is infinitely more complex than a single hurricane season. It moves in cycles and eddies that run from seconds to millennia. About forty years ago some climate pundits feared we were heading into global cooling and needed to prepare for a drier, cooler time with lower sea levels. According to many scientific studies of past frigid periods we are past due for the onset of the next ice age. Hubert Lamb of the UK Met Office dominated the 1961 UN meeting on global cooling. A founder of the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia, he was one of the world's top climate scientists. He warned that people had become complacent about climate at a time when population growth, cold, and drought could seriously damage their food supplies. (The Norse in Greenland perished of starvation after five hundred successful years when the Little Ice Age destroyed their crops.) In historic times the climate has veered from warmer than the present, the Medieval Warm Period, to the much colder conditions of the Little Ice Age from which we may still be emerging. Evidence shows that much of the Sahara and the Middle East held lush vegetation and crop land twelve thousand or so years ago while northern Europe and America were covered with up to a mile of ice during the Younger Dryas event..

Added 1-11-2010 - Does all of this make you wonder about the severity of recent winters, 2008 to 2010?

Posted by HoJo at 11:50 AM 0 comments